Just as the success of a rocket launch depends on a combination of factors – thrust, location, design, launch window – the launch of a new pharmaceutical product also depends on a host of determinants. It just takes one factor to send the launch awry and lead to lower-than-expected sales trajectory.
A recent analysis of 50 drug launches in the US revealed that only 12% demonstrated a relatively accurate sales forecast. Disappointing sales figures can lead to wasted company resources, volatility in stock prices and ultimately limited patient access to potentially life-saving treatments.
There have been some high-profile examples in recent years. Novartis had high hopes for Beovu, its VEGF inhibitor for wet AMD when it launched in 2019. But after the American Society of Retina Specialists flagged a potentially vision-damaging safety risk, the product’s value proposition diminished in the eyes of stakeholders and sales tumbled.
Despite a clear unmet need for Bluebird Bio’s Zynteglo, a gene therapy for an ultra-rare blood disorder, the product failed to hit initial forecasts. In the US, two-thirds of eligible patients remained unsure about gene therapy while in Europe, the product was withdrawn after unsuccessful price negotiations.
Of course, the reasons for suboptimal performance are usually clear in retrospect. The challenge for pharmaceutical companies is to identify and manage them before launch.
Reaching SPACE: five determinants to ensure an optimal launch
The launch is a one-off opportunity to get the sales trajectory right from the start. Below are five key determinants to consider when planning a launch.
For each, we will outline the key challenges and recommendations for launch excellence.
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