Global sales of prescription drugs will grow by 6.3% per year between 2016 and 2022 to reach $1.12tr, with biologics expected to contribute half of the top 100 product sales, according to a new report.
EvaluatePharma expects new products to drive this growth, with the upward trajectory of approvals for new molecular entities (NMEs) that saw 50 NMEs approved in 2014 and 56 in 2015 showing little sign of slowing down.
Longtime market-leading products, such as Gilead Sciences’ Harvoni (ledipasvir), which brought in $13.9bn last year, are predicted to lose their dominant positions in favour of newer therapies coming through industry pipelines.
Roche currently has the highest valued pipeline at $43bn by 2022, and its products are forecast to account for 10% of the top 50 selling products, with multiple sclerosis treatment Ocrevus topping the list.
To fuel this boom, industry-wide research and development investment is expected to grow by 2.8% to $182bn in 2022, creating an additional $169bn in sales.
While oncology remains the largest therapy area with a predicted 12.5% annual growth rate, pharma companies are expected to continue the trend in developing drugs for narrow patient populations with unmet need and easier market access.
Consequently, the orphan drug market is expected to almost double by 2022, peaking at $217bn.
However, Antonio Iervolino, head of forecasting at Evaluate, issued a note of caution when it came to high cost products and how they are perceived.
“The recent outcry over Mylan’s price increases for EpiPen – followed by the company’s repeated capitulations – show just how sensitive pricing models can be to political pressure.
“As a result of this we expect companies to continue investing in pricing models strongly tied to real world benefits and consistently incorporate pricing and market access discussions at a much earlier stage in the clinical development process.”