The market for type 2 diabetes treatments in the Asia-Pacific (APAC) region is estimated to rise in value to $10.5bn by 2020.
Business intelligence provider GBI Research predicts that the market will grow by $4bn from its 2013 figure of $6.5bn as the number of people with diabetes increases in these regions and access to treatment improves.
The estimate represents a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.1%, with the report stating that of the four major APAC countries – China, India, Japan and Australia – China will see the fastest expansion with a CAGR of 11.1% over the period from 2013.
The figure is also likely to be affected by the introduction of several new drug classes for type 2 diabetes to complement the existing standards of metformin and sulfonylureas.
The new classes include GLP-1 agonists, such as Novo Nordisk’s Victoza (liraglutide), SGLT2 inhibitors, such as AstraZeneca’s Forxiga (dapagliflozin) and DPP-4 inhibitors, such as Boehringer Ingelheim’s Trajenta (linagliptin).
Arti Singh, an analyst for GBI Research, commented: “While metformin is expected to retain its dominant position in the treatment algorithm for type 2 diabetes, the anticipated launch of promising pipeline molecules, including several drugs with novel mechanisms of action, may also contribute to market expansion.”
These new products will have to demonstrate they are worth the higher asking price over cheaper metformin and sulfonylureas, according to Singh.
“If these late-stage pipeline drugs fail to show consistently strong efficacy profiles across phase III trials or are found to have a slight chance of causing a serious adverse event, such as cancer, their commercial potential will be severely reduced.”