Five Predictions That Will Reshape Biopharma Commercialisation in 2026
January 5, 2026 |
Every year, we’re met with restructuring, hiring freezes, and portfolio cuts. And every year we tell ourselves the same story. It’s a rough patch. A cycle that will reverse.
But the data going into 2026 says otherwise.
2025 was a record year, with the highest quarterly layoff numbers in years and cuts affecting companies of all sizes, from emerging biotechs to pharma giants.
Layer in the policy turbulence of the last twelve months and the picture is clear: 2026 won’t be a year of bouncing back. It will be a year defined by new rules.
2026 will bring a leaner talent base. Harsher economics. Fewer “nice to have” bets. Choices that compel customer action. Choices that are integrated. In short, Biopharma will operate as a structurally leaner industry.
The risk is that we keep looking to the same playbook to navigate a path through a world that no longer exists. Instead, we should be seizing the opportunity to regroup, recalibrate, and sharpen where and how we create value for patients.
So, how will this play out in 2026? Check out our five predictions that are set to reshape Biopharma commercialisation strategies in the year ahead.
1) Geographic diversification becomes a non-negotiable resilience strategy
The old story was about building the U.S. franchise, then deciding where else to go. The new reality necessitates diversifying where revenue comes from, as part of a resilience strategy – not just an upside story.
As the IQVIA Global Launch Excellence report points out, early, integrated, global planning is a critical success factor for pharmaceutical launches – boosting year-two adoption by an estimated 30-40%.[i]
Looking to the year ahead, for many assets, this shift will mean:
- Global ambition and selective depth
US + EU5 will remain “own” markets. Japan, China and key APAC markets will become “must-understand” territories. And GCC/MENA and LatAm can no longer be ignored. - Earlier global decision-making
The question “Do we build our own presence in region X?” is being pulled upstream into Phase II/III, because access policy, tariffs, and system capacity directly shape a peak-sales story. In 2026, it will become more problematic to attempt to separate clinical and commercial thinking by continent. - Unified cross-regional strategy
Teams will need to build a shared, evolving picture of must-win regions, what would justify direct presence, and which assumptions are most fragile.
Head to Drug Discovery World to learn more about unlocking worldwide access from Nmblr founder & CEO, Janice MacLennan.
2) Commercialisation becomes a continuously evolving strategy
56% of Biopharma leaders surveyed in 2025 agreed that the entire commercial function needs significant change or full transformation.[ii]
And they weren’t wrong.
Most of us learnt commercialisation in organisations that were bigger, more stable, and more forgiving than the ones we’re operating in now. You could afford a slower start and a few extra roles ‘just in case’.
2026 will be a leaner, meaner environment so commercialisation strategy will need a reset. It can no longer be something you write once and leave locked away inside a PowerPoint presentation.
Instead, teams will need to reframe commercialisation as a journey of aligned intention, where patient outcomes are achieved through synergy instead of fragmented effort. Likewise, organisations will need to encourage individuals to contribute to the development of a commercialisation strategy and see themselves as part of a greater movement – amplifying individual strengths through purposeful collaboration.
Making this happen in 2026 requires:
- A shared mental model of the patient and their journey across all functions
- Joined-up decisions by bringing critical perspectives together earlier so design, evidence, access and adoption are shaped in concert.
- Coherence in the story we tell so the value narrative a payer hears is consistent with what the clinician experiences and what the patient feels.
- Continuous integration – using real-world data, patient feedback and frontline experience to refine decisions, not just review annually.
The best teams are those that treat commercialisation as a series of disciplined learning cycles, not a Gantt chart. They make assumptions visible, revisit them as needed, and connect each decision back to one question: “Does this help the right patients experience this therapy in the right way, at the right time?”
3) Resource allocation becomes the primary strategic lever
In a world of fewer people and harsher economics, resource allocation stops being an implementation detail. It becomes the primary strategic lever.
This makes 2026 the year leaders must be explicit about which 3–5 bets they’re truly willing to staff and fund properly. Not 12 priorities that all matter but a handful they are prepared to defend when the next round of cuts inevitably comes. It also requires leaders to agree which markets and indications they will not chase. Saying no clearly is important, so teams don’t waste energy trying to keep everything warm. Finally, leaders will need to define how they’ll move resources when signals come in – up or down, good or bad, and before the annual plan cycle.
When leaders sit back and ask: “If we had 20% fewer people next year, which bets would we still fight for?” they obtain fresh clarity. This can then be used to pivot the strategy – not because the science moved, but because they aligned how they employed people and money with what they said mattered.
4) Patience for underperformance is shrinking
In 2026, if a launch doesn’t show traction, it’ll quickly become a candidate for budget cuts, fewer indications or markets, and partnership or divestment conversations.
Research confirms that only 1 in 10 pharma products can make major improvements to their launch trajectory after the initial six-month window.[iii]
This narrative is no longer just about bonuses. It’s tied to whether a team survives and whether future patients ever see the full value of an asset.
This doesn’t mean panicking at the first bad month. It’s about being honest early, so teams need to ask themselves:
- Are we seeing the right leading indicators (awareness, access, pull-through) in the right segments?
- Where is misalignment (between medical, access, field, digital) quietly slowing us down?
The overarching question to ask here is: “If we judged our launch health by compelling customer behaviour—not by shipping slide decks—what story would the data tell?”
5) AI, automation, and the risk of vanishing strategy
As AI and automation take over parts of discovery, development, and operations, companies are reshaping their talent mix. That often means cutting in areas they believe can be augmented or replaced.
Yet this presents a quiet risk going into 2026: strategy lives in the heads of people who may not be in-post next year.
If assumptions, trade-offs, and cross-functional choices only exist in PowerPoint or in a few senior leaders’ memories, every restructuring destroys part of the logic that was keeping an asset on track.
What’s needed instead is a living, shared way of thinking together:
- a place where key assumptions are explicit
- a place where risks and alternatives are visible
- a place where decisions and their rationale are easy to pick up when teams change
So, when the inevitable re-organisation hits, the strategy is still there to be nurtured by the team that remains – and the asset still has a chance to reach the right patients.
To succeed in 2026, teams must be empowered to move as one to co-create value-maximising commercialisation strategies.
Nmblr is built for it.
[i] https://www.iqvia.com/locations/emea/library/white-papers/launch-excellence-ix#:~:text=Get%20instant%20access,Subscribe
[ii] https://www.deloitte.com/us/en/insights/industry/health-care/future-of-commercial-in-pharma.html
[iii] https://www.linkedin.com/posts/ventsislav-dobrev-86a9932a_launch-activity-7346394527961645057-0UaX/
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Five Predictions That Will Reshape Biopharma Commercialisation in 2026
Every year, we’re met with restructuring, hiring freezes, and portfolio cuts. And every year we tell ourselves the same story. It’s a rough patch. A cycle that will reverse. But...