Launching prescription medicines excellently – achieving optimal commercial performance that reflects a medicine’s value and the clinical, commercial and financial investment made in it – has always been one of the most important activities an innovative pharmaceutical company undertakes. In many cases, the future growth of the company depends on excellent launch. What it takes to achieve launch excellence has always evolved, as the types of innovative medicines coming to market and the environments they face have changed. In the next ten years, however, the stakes are higher, and the environmental challenges more transformative.
According to IQVIA figures, the global patent cliff for innovative medicines to 2030 equates to more than $230bn of current list price value exposed to lower-cost competition. The risk is concentrated among leading innovative pharmaceutical companies, with up to 65% of big pharma’s current revenues at risk. A further $200-250bn of industry revenue is at risk by 2035. Some of the world’s most valuable pharmaceutical brands, including Keytruda, Wegovy and Dupixent, will lose exclusivity in these periods.
Replacing this value will not be easy. Pharmaceutical companies are launching more innovative products, but many of these products are individually smaller products facing faster, fiercer competition. In fact, half of launches in the top eight countries make less than $5m in their first year per country. Multi-billion-dollar brands still exist, often driven by strong multi-indication strategies (eg, Keytruda, Humira) or exceptional new market creation (such as modern obesity medicines). But they are the exception, not the norm. Launches are also facing competition faster: think of Wegovy Pill, launched for obesity in the US in January 2026 and already facing competition from Lilly’s oral obesity agent Foundayo, launched in April 2026. This matters because IQVIA’s launch excellence research has consistently identified the first six months as a critical window of opportunity for most launches to establish long-term success.
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