The burden of diagnosed incident cases of melanoma in the US, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, the UK, Canada and Australia (the 8MM) is expected to increase at an annual growth rate (AGR) of 1.47%, from 229,000 in 2025 to 263,000 cases in 2035, forecasts GlobalData, an intelligence and productivity platform.
GlobalData’s latest report, ‘Melanoma: Epidemiology Report and Forecast’, reveals that the US will have the highest number of diagnosed incident cases of melanoma across the 8MM, with just over 130,000 cases in 2035. Canada, Australia and France, Germany, Italy, Spain, the UK (the 5EU) are estimated to have approximately 14,000, 21,000 and 88,000 diagnosed incident cases of melanoma in 2035, respectively.
Ultraviolet (UV) radiation is a key risk factor in the manifestation of melanoma. According to GlobalData epidemiologists, Australia was observed to have markedly higher incidence rates of melanoma relative to other countries. This likely reflects a combination of high-risk factors that increase both the exposure and susceptibility to UV radiation.
Robyn Jones, Epidemiologist at GlobalData, comments: “The discrepancy between incidence rates of melanoma in Australia and those in all other markets may be explained by a combination of its location on the southern hemisphere, its proximity to the equator and a considerable number of its population with fair skin.”
Countries in the southern hemisphere are closer to the sun during their summer. Australia is also located near to the equator, which further exacerbates UV exposure due to the sun’s position and atmospheric conditions. These factors, combined with Australia’s demography, marked by a considerable fair-skinned population, results in higher susceptibility to UV exposure.
GlobalData epidemiologists also observed that, although proportions varied across the markets, cases were most frequently diagnosed at stage 1, representing the majority of diagnosed incident cases in each market.
Jones concludes: “The high proportion of early diagnosis likely reflects considerable progress in public awareness of the risks of UV exposure and melanoma. These are likely attributed to public health protection efforts aimed at increasing awareness of how melanoma presents, alongside multi-pronged interventions to curb UV exposure.”